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From the Publisher
By Jim Webb

Economic Forecast and More…

No matter where I travel, questions I get from people always deal with what I think the economy will do. Just how bad of shape is our country in? What about tax increases? How should people who own small businesses react to what’s going on? What about the average middle class family trying to make ends meet? Well, let’s go around the horn and see what we come up with.

• The politicians, both Obama and McCain, are part of the problem. Psychology drives results and when we have so many politicians running around with the “woe is me” attitude, it has a direct impact on our economy. It seems all you hear is how terrible things have been for the last eight years and we are doomed to failure. The fact of the matter is our core inflation rate is pretty good. Yes, the cost of energy can skew this whole economy, but it is important to recognize where it is coming from.

What we do know from history is that back in 1925 our country was in a depression. President Herbert Hoover pushed for and got huge tax increases passed. Our country was pushed into the deepest and darkest Depression anyone could imagine. It sends shivers up and down my spine when I hear Obama and the Democratic controlled Congress promising big tax increases for the American taxpayers. The psychology of a “woe is me” attitude coupled with promises of tax increases does not bode well for the US economy. However, interest rates remain good and this is a plus.

• The price of oil is even causing businesses like Proctor and Gamble to reevaluate their entire distribution system. Sam’s Club and Wal-Mart will do the same as will many other companies. Cost improvement will be a subject discussed by every company across the board. Just how much more efficient we can become remains to be seen. Last month our purchases of gasoline actually were down 2.7%, a number that surprised everyone.

The position we are in today is caused by decisions made over ten years ago by the “Clintonian” tree huggers. The fact is drilling should never have been stopped and at least ten new nuclear power plants started that would be coming on line right about now. At the same time, alterative sources of energy such as wind and hydro should have been pushed. As long as we allow commodity traders to reap big profits, the price of oil will be the price of oil!!! These commodity traders don’t have dime one invested. All they are doing is buying huge amounts which create a supposed shortage that forces demand up and available inventories down. The price of a barrel goes up and the commodity trader will sell his position, making millions of dollars in the process and bilking the American consumer. The solution to getting these parasites out of the system is to allow only those with a capital investment to participate in the market; i.e., the well drillers, the refiner, the distribution networks, the wholesalers, and the final retailer. The commodity traders are simply raping the system with the consumer paying inflated prices for oil. All of our domestically produced fuels should be kept here at home! An export surcharge would accomplish this objective. We have more than enough oil to affect the world supply and to reduce the price. Control the commodity traders; start drilling along our shorelines because if we don’t, the Chinese and Venezuelans will.

• In regard to agricultural products and their impact upon the world food situation, many things can be said. At today’s price of corn, beans, and wheat, we should be in the best export position we have been in for years. This offers an opportunity to push up prices on the world market to offset the high price being charged for oil by the same people who need our food supply.

Using corn to make ethanol is at best a real question mark. It is at best difficult to find out just exactly how much it costs to get out of corn what is needed to make ethanol. It is difficult to figure out just how much corn mash is left which is suitable for animal feed. It has been stated we will not recognize this industry in five years. It will change. More efficiency will in fact cover a significant portion of our need for fuel.

• Our biggest concern is the world famine situation. Our country is one of only a few that can impact the world food supply in a significant fashion. The problem is the countries that need the food can’t afford to pay for it. So while we are going broke paying for high priced oil, it’s at best difficult to recoup our losses doing what we do well—growing food!

• And what about real estate? Everyone knows the mess we have in the residential mortgage area. Loans were given to people who couldn’t afford the house they were being sold. In most cases the buyer had no money of his own invested in the purchase as even the closing costs were being financed with second mortgages. When the adjustable rate mortgages were flexed upwards, they could no longer afford their monthly payment. Having none of their own money invested in the home, they simply packed up and left. Entire neighborhoods became just row after row of empty houses—no one there!

Of course the immediate cry was that the federal government—we taxpayers—had to step in and somehow solve the problem of people not being able to pay their mortgages. Fortunately this only affected 1% or 2% of the mortgage market. These properties need to be liquidated at whatever price the properties can command. The banks that jumped into sub prime market are going to take their hits and in some cases the lending institutions won’t survive. In no way should the American taxpayer be stuck with the bill. The government causes enough panic on their own by announcing the value of real estate dropped 15.3% last month. They fail to tell you this 15.3% number is being driven by the mortgage foreclosures. The residential foreclosure market will take care of itself. The price of these foreclosures will drop to a level where private investors will see a way to make a buck by buying up tracts of these homes--rehabbing the properties—and putting them back on the market at prices people can afford through standard mortgages.

On the commercial real estate side, the results are much better. Investors in commercial real estate learned their lessons big time back in the 1990’s. Do you remember the big glut of empty office buildings? Floor after floor of empty office space all across the country. Cities like Houston, Texas had an inventory of available office space projected to last well into the 21st century. Many large investors went belly up as office buildings sat empty. So we put the commercial real estate marketing in the plus column.

• Personal income and savings were a big surprise this past month. Personal income increased 1.4%. This brought a number of our supposed financial gurus up short. Couldn’t explain it. Likewise the savings rate actually increased—another big surprise. What it says is the American wage earner is smarter than what our government thinks. The American workers are working harder and, unlike our Washington politicians, are smart enough to save some of their money.

• Retailers have learned their lessons from previous recessions. If the American wage earner doesn’t have the money to spend, they don’t have it. If the American wage earner chooses to save their money, they are going to save some of it as the figures indicate.

Retailers have greatly reduced buying for the upcoming holiday season. The American consumers are tightening their belts and planning sharply reduced purchases for the holiday season. Personally, I think this is good. It does mean the handful of really sought after items will be hard to find. This may be a year where buying early could be the thing to do. I don’t think we will see the big price reductions as we approach the week or so before the holidays as we have seen in the past. So the word is buy early, buy smart, and don’t overextend yourself. Junior may be disappointed he didn’t get exactly what he wanted—but guess what—he will get over it.

• A few last comments about NAFTA and the exporting of jobs to China. All of the politicians who pushed for NAFTA and the allowing of Mexican trucks to run our highways are guilty. The same is true of those who have encouraged the export of jobs to places like China. And the same is true of those who oppose closing our borders with Mexico and deporting the 12 million illegal aliens back to where they came from.

Small business owners are the ones most affected by the economic downturn and are the least equipped to handle it. The reason is small businesses, as a general rule, operate with limited capital and usually lack good short term and long term planning. The small business owner generally flies by the seat of his pants and relies upon experience to make decisions affecting the livelihood of his enterprise. The news of a small business going out of business is perhaps at best the “same day news.” Then it’s forgotten. How can small business owners help themselves during times like this? A few ideas would help. First, when business starts to slow, they are already behind the eight ball because of a lack of short term and long term planning. This means they don’t have a business plan and therefore don’t have established lines of credit with their bankers. Remember one thing—banks don’t like to lend you money when you need it. They like to give you loans and lines of credit when your balance sheet is good, your company is making profit, and you have a reasonable amount of cash on hand in their bank. Then you are a good business risk.

One of the things I see so many small businesses do when sales slow down is that they start cutting costs. Tightening the belt they should do; or perhaps deferring the purchase of a large new piece of equipment. What they shouldn’t do is cut their advertising budgets which I see so many of them do. As the pie of available business shrinks, they need to be aggressive and go after their share or perhaps even increase their share of the market. They need to remember that unsettled economic times can present opportunities. Be aggressive—go after new customers and perhaps enlarge what you consider to be your market area. Make the pie bigger. Above all, remember your objective is to stay in the game. Be there to capture new market share and further enhance your business as the economy returns to a period of growth.

Well, it’s been interesting to look at all these areas and to try to provide some answers to questions I am often asked. I do believe a good grasp of the current situation is good as we contend with all the doomsayer politicians. Just remember two things. When things are going good—they are never quite as good as you think! When things are going bad—they are never quite as bad as the politicians would like us to believe.

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The Baer Fact
By Leroy Baer

A Ball Game or a Vacation?

Just a week ago, five friends of mine went to see a ball game between the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh. The weather was a little warm for watching a game but the sky was clear.

The group had planned this excursion for months in advance. They had to, because of the cost. Four of them drove out together, while the fifth one took his family. The one who took his family suffered the most because he had to cover expenses for his wife and two teenagers. The others only had to worry about themselves.

Going to a baseball game used to be called the American pass time. What has it turned into in the 21st century? It is now called the American vacation. Due to the high cost of this activity, a normal family has to save a considerable amount of money to enjoy watching their favorite team in action at the stadium.

The players are paid more than the President of the United States and some CEO’s of major corporations. This is passed down to the fan. But ironically, the fans will pay regardless of expense. I recently read in the New York Daily News that a seat that cost $250.00 in Yankee Stadium today will cost $850.00 in the new Yankee Stadium. How preposterous is that? When will we ever learn? As Americans, we love our sports and the individuals who play them, but to what extent will we go to watch them in person.

Here’s the cost of a family of four to go to a Yankees-Pirates game in Pittsburgh, PA.

The cost of gas is approximately $75. The hotel room downtown is $350 a night. They stayed one night. Tickets to the game were $112 each or $448.00 total. Food cost came to approximately $200 counting the stadium concessions. That comes to approximately $1,200 for an average family to go to a baseball game in 2008. But guess what? The stadium was packed. There were over 38,000 fans in the park that night.

How many of those 38,000 were using their vacation money to see multi-millionaires play ball? How much revenue did the owners earn, just for that one baseball game? How much did the city of Pittsburgh profit? These are questions that have definite answers to them. However, we’ll never know the answers. But those on the receiving end no doubt will.

I can no longer call baseball, the American pass time. Well, let me clarify that statement by saying, I can no longer call Major League Baseball the American pass time.

I don’t know about you, but it appears to me that somewhere along the line, someone is trying to eliminate the middle class in this country. Last week I talked about the price of gas. Now it’s the price of a ball game. It’s all relative. Gas, heating oil, water, sewage, mortgages and anything else you can think of.

The only thing not going up is wages. One day we’ll wake up! I just hope we have a bed and roof over our heads to wake up in. By the way, the Pirates won that game and the fans enjoyed there vacation

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The Politics Behind the News
By Jonathan Williamson Ph.D.
Jonathan Williamson will return next week...

Williamson is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Lycoming College.

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From Down in the Ranks
To Naval Academy Graduate

By Lou Hunsinger Jr.

To rise from the ranks and then attend and graduate from a military service academy is sometimes a difficult but often a rewarding challenge and accomplishment. One South Williamsport man knows this well.

Andrew West was graduated from South Williamsport High School in 2000 and enlisted in the Navy. He became a nuclear machinist mate and excelled in and enjoyed that work.

After several years of service in the Navy he applied for officer’s training but before he got a chance to do that he was appointed to the U.S. Naval Academy at Annapolis in 2004. He graduated from there several weeks ago.


Andrew West upon graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy.

“It was quite an adjustment for me to go from the ranks to going to Annapolis,” West told Webb Weekly. “The midshipmen who were over me and supervised me were several years younger and did not have the perspective of serving in the Navy as I did. In many ways I knew some things that they did not and my experience made it a little hard at times to take orders from them but that is part of the discipline that you learn at Annapolis but of course there was still plenty of things to learn there.”

He believes his service in the ranks helped during his time at the Naval Academy and provided him with a perspective and maturity that the other midshipmen he was with probably could have had and benefited from.

“I think my experience in the ranks will help me to be a better an officer and a leader of people,” West said. “I think that I know better than most officers what it’s like to walk in the enlisted person’s shoes and that helps me to understand them better and work better with them as a team for a common goal or mission.”

West majored in oceanography at the Naval Academy but continued to pursue his interest in nuclear technology and submarines.

He will go to submarine school in Groton, Connecticut this fall for about six months training and then next spring will undergo an additional six months training and he hopes by the end of 2009 to be assigned to duty on a submarine.

“I hope to be the captain of my own submarine,” he said. “I really like the work on submarines and I think that my diverse experiences can help me to be a good skipper.”

West’s sister, Cassie is also in the Navy, serving aboard the U.S.S. Eisenhower.

It looks like members of the West family will be steaming full speed ahead in the Navy for many years to come.

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